Tuesday, February 24, 2004

The Kerry Cascade - How a '50s psychology experiment can explain the Democratic primaries. By Duncan?Watts

The Kerry Cascade - How a '50s psychology experiment can explain the Democratic primaries.


Yeah, what that guy said - Duncan Watts' article in Slate
Everything pundits are saying about Dean now could just as easily be used (and would have been used) to "explain" a Dean victory. Had that happened instead, we would all be walking around saying, "Well, of course Kerry lost—he's got all the charisma of a dead horse—and that Dean is a real firebrand." In each of these "parallel worlds," Dean and Kerry are exactly the same (more or less), and voters are (more or less) exactly the same as well. In terms of the inputs, the difference between the two worlds could be a coin toss. And yet the results, along with our collective memory of what happened and why, are absolutely, completely different, and we can't even imagine now what that other world would have looked like, let alone how vigorously we'd be rationalizing it.


read the whole article.

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