Long. And extremely scary. -- The Coming Anarchy - 94.02
Much has been shown wrong, at least temporarily, but Africa is still proving him right, and Kosovo happened exactly as he thought. I have always been sceptical of the Lexus and the Olive Tree idea, but certainly I would rather have Robert D. Kaplan proven wrong than Friedman. My only consolation is that while it is possible to show Friedman being right, at some point in the future, it is almost impossible to show Kaplan wrong. When one subscribes to the "long term" view, not only will we all be dead, but any movemenet towards progress can be seen as a temporary blink.
Still, a worthwhile read if you got some time.